KenPom Forecast
Probit Monte Carlo simulation based on KenPom efficiency ratings
Models vs Markets
| # | Team | Sd | Model% | InjAdj% | Elo% | Kalshi% | Poly% | Sharp% | K-Sim | P-Sim | S-Sim | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 1 | 25.12% | 27.07% | 10.75% | 24.00% | 21.00% | 19.99% | -3.1 | -6.1 | -7.1 | SIM HIGHER |
| 2 | Arizona | 1 | 15.78% | 18.95% | 15.10% | 14.00% | 11.90% | 14.88% | -4.9 | -7.1 | -4.1 | SIM HIGHER |
| 3 | Florida | 2 | 10.30% | 12.83% | 6.59% | 13.00% | 10.40% | 9.55% | +0.2 | -2.4 | -3.3 | SIM HIGHER |
| 4 | Michigan | 1 | 20.41% | 12.16% | 9.25% | 22.00% | 18.00% | 19.76% | +9.8 | +5.8 | +7.6 | MARKETS HIGHER |
| 5 | Houston | 2 | 4.92% | 6.11% | 8.00% | 7.00% | 8.00% | 7.20% | +0.9 | +1.9 | +1.1 | |
| 6 | Illinois | 2 | 4.87% | 5.55% | 3.41% | 5.00% | 4.40% | 4.65% | -0.5 | -1.2 | -0.9 | |
| 7 | Purdue | 3 | 2.79% | 3.84% | 5.29% | 3.00% | 3.70% | 2.10% | -0.8 | -0.1 | -1.7 | SIM HIGHER |
| 8 | Connecticut | 1 | 2.40% | 2.87% | 8.43% | 7.00% | 5.80% | 4.79% | +4.1 | +2.9 | +1.9 | MARKETS HIGHER |
| 9 | Iowa St. | 3 | 1.59% | 1.87% | -- | 4.00% | 2.90% | 3.74% | +2.1 | +1.0 | +1.9 | MARKETS HIGHER |
| 10 | Michigan St. | 2 | 2.63% | 1.67% | 0.00% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 1.89% | +0.3 | +0.8 | +0.2 | ALIGNED |
| 11 | Nebraska | 3 | 1.13% | 1.19% | 2.19% | 2.00% | 0.60% | 1.06% | +0.8 | -0.6 | -0.1 | ALIGNED |
| 12 | Gonzaga | 4 | 1.27% | 0.93% | 3.21% | 2.00% | 1.80% | 1.54% | +1.1 | +0.9 | +0.6 | |
| 13 | Alabama | 4 | 0.97% | 0.88% | 0.92% | 1.00% | 1.30% | 1.13% | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.3 | ALIGNED |
| 14 | Virginia | 4 | 0.49% | 0.75% | 0.84% | 2.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | +1.3 | +0.3 | +0.3 | ALIGNED |
| 15 | Vanderbilt | 5 | 0.81% | 0.69% | 1.36% | 2.00% | 0.70% | 0.90% | +1.3 | +0.0 | +0.2 | ALIGNED |
| 16 | Kansas | 4 | 0.52% | 0.58% | 1.03% | 3.00% | 2.30% | 2.24% | +2.4 | +1.7 | +1.7 | MARKETS HIGHER |
| 17 | St. John's | 5 | 0.26% | 0.31% | -- | 1.00% | 1.20% | 1.31% | +0.7 | +0.9 | +1.0 | |
| 18 | Texas Tech | 3 | 1.38% | 0.24% | 1.47% | 1.00% | 2.20% | 0.81% | +0.8 | +2.0 | +0.6 | |
| 19 | Saint Mary's | 8 | 0.13% | 0.22% | -- | 1.00% | -- | 0.39% | +0.8 | -- | +0.2 | ALIGNED |
| 20 | Louisville | 6 | 0.27% | 0.14% | 0.92% | 1.00% | 0.60% | 0.90% | +0.9 | +0.5 | +0.8 | |
| 21 | Utah St. | 7 | 0.09% | 0.12% | -- | -- | -- | 0.31% | -- | -- | +0.2 | ALIGNED |
| 22 | Arkansas | 5 | 0.33% | 0.11% | 0.71% | 2.00% | 0.70% | 1.41% | +1.9 | +0.6 | +1.3 | |
| 23 | Saint Louis | 7 | 0.08% | 0.10% | 0.00% | 1.00% | 0.50% | 0.52% | +0.9 | +0.4 | +0.4 | |
| 24 | Tennessee | 5 | 0.57% | 0.10% | 0.58% | 1.00% | 0.90% | 1.21% | +0.9 | +0.8 | +1.1 | |
| 25 | Santa Clara | 11 | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.34% | 1.00% | -- | 0.17% | +0.9 | -- | +0.1 | |
| 26 | Iowa | 8 | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.97% | 1.00% | -- | 0.50% | +0.9 | -- | +0.4 | |
| 27 | N.C. State | 8 | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.00% | 1.00% | 0.60% | 0.43% | +0.9 | +0.5 | +0.4 | |
| 28 | Texas | 10 | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.38% | 1.00% | -- | 0.38% | +0.9 | -- | +0.3 | |
| 29 | UCLA | 10 | 0.04% | 0.06% | 0.50% | 1.00% | 0.80% | 0.38% | +0.9 | +0.7 | +0.3 | |
| 30 | Ohio St. | 10 | 0.04% | 0.06% | -- | 1.00% | -- | 0.23% | +0.9 | -- | +0.2 | |
| 31 | Kentucky | 7 | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.66% | 1.00% | 0.60% | 0.96% | +0.9 | +0.5 | +0.9 | |
| 32 | Indiana | 11 | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.36% | 1.00% | -- | 0.19% | +1.0 | -- | +0.1 | |
| 33 | Miami FL | 8 | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.07% | 1.00% | -- | 0.43% | +1.0 | -- | +0.4 | |
| 34 | Clemson | 9 | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.58% | 1.00% | 0.20% | 0.38% | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 | |
| 35 | Georgia | 9 | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.61% | -- | -- | 0.26% | -- | -- | +0.2 | |
| 36 | Auburn | 11 | 0.02% | 0.03% | 0.43% | 1.00% | 0.20% | 0.17% | +1.0 | +0.2 | +0.1 | |
| 37 | SMU | 9 | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.69% | 1.00% | -- | 0.31% | +1.0 | -- | +0.3 | |
| 38 | Villanova | 6 | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.55% | 1.00% | -- | 0.34% | +1.0 | -- | +0.3 | |
| 39 | BYU | 6 | 0.17% | 0.01% | 0.95% | 1.00% | 0.30% | 0.54% | +1.0 | +0.3 | +0.5 | |
| 40 | Texas A&M | 11 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.91% | 1.00% | -- | 0.43% | +1.0 | -- | +0.4 | |
| 41 | TCU | 12 | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.12% | -- | -- | 0.23% | -- | -- | +0.2 | |
| 42 | South Florida | 12 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.04% | -- | -- | 0.14% | -- | -- | +0.1 | |
| 43 | Wisconsin | 7 | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.21% | 1.00% | -- | 0.77% | +1.0 | -- | +0.8 | |
| 44 | North Carolina | 6 | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.22% | 1.00% | 1.50% | 1.06% | +1.0 | +1.5 | +1.1 | |
| 45 | Belmont | 12 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.10% | -- | -- | 0.08% | -- | -- | +0.1 | |
| 46 | UCF | 9 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.47% | 1.00% | -- | 0.29% | +1.0 | -- | +0.3 | |
| 47 | Merrimack | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 48 | UC Irvine | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | 0.18% | -- | -- | +0.2 | |
| 49 | Portland St. | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 50 | Howard | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 51 | Wright St. | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 52 | East Tennessee St. | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 53 | Navy | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 54 | Troy | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | 0.08% | -- | -- | +0.1 | |
| 55 | Liberty | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.07% | -- | -- | 0.18% | -- | -- | +0.2 | |
| 56 | North Dakota St. | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 57 | High Point | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | 0.18% | -- | -- | +0.2 | |
| 58 | UNC Wilmington | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | 0.08% | -- | -- | +0.1 | |
| 59 | Stephen F. Austin | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 60 | Utah Valley | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.04% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | |
| 61 | Yale | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.05% | -- | -- | 0.16% | -- | -- | +0.2 | |
| 62 | Miami OH | 12 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.03% | 1.00% | -- | 0.14% | +1.0 | -- | +0.1 | |
| 63 | Missouri | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.34% | 1.00% | -- | 0.39% | +1.0 | -- | +0.4 | |
| 64 | LIU | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
K/P/S-Sim = market minus injury-adjusted model (pp). Signal based on Sharp: SIM HIGHER (>1.5pp), MARKETS HIGHER (<-1.5pp), ALIGNED (<0.5pp).
Consensus Bracket
South
1 UConn 3/4
2 Florida 3/4
3 Iowa St 3/4
3 Nebraska 3/4
3 Purdue 3/4
4 Texas Tech 3/4
5 Arkansas 3/4
5 Vanderbilt 3/4
6 North Carolina 3/4
6 BYU 3/4
7 Kentucky 3/4
8 Utah St 3/4
8 Miami 3/4
8 Clemson 3/4
9 Georgia 3/4
9 Iowa 3/4
West
1 Arizona 3/4
2 Florida 3/4
2 Michigan St 3/4
3 Illinois 3/4
4 Kansas 3/4
4 Alabama 3/4
5 St John's 3/4
5 Gonzaga 3/4
5 Arkansas 3/4
6 BYU 3/4
7 Wisconsin 3/4
7 Kentucky 3/4
8 St Mary's 3/4
8 Miami 3/4
8 Clemson 3/4
9 Missouri 3/4
Midwest
1 Michigan 3/4
2 Houston 3/4
3 Nebraska 3/4
3 Purdue 3/4
4 Virginia 3/4
5 Tennessee 3/4
5 Vanderbilt 3/4
6 North Carolina 3/4
6 Louisville 3/4
7 Villanova 3/4
7 Wisconsin 3/4
7 Kentucky 3/4
8 Saint Louis 3/4
8 NC State 3/4
9 Georgia 3/4
9 UCF 3/4
East
1 Duke 3/4
2 Michigan St 3/4
3 Illinois 3/4
3 Iowa St 3/4
4 Kansas 3/4
4 Texas Tech 3/4
4 Alabama 3/4
5 St John's 3/4
5 Gonzaga 3/4
5 Tennessee 3/4
5 Vanderbilt 3/4
6 Louisville 3/4
7 Villanova 3/4
8 Utah St 3/4
8 Saint Louis 3/4
8 St Mary's 3/4
Numbers show source agreement (e.g. 3/4 = 3 of 4 bracketologists agree). 90 teams tracked.
Championship Probabilities — Top 25
Round-by-Round Advancement — Top 30
Survival Curves — Top 8 Contenders
Full Simulation Results — 64 Teams (Injury-Adjusted)
| Team | Seed | Region | R64 | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Final | Champ | Inj Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | 1 | East | 99+ | 99.40 | 90.09 | 76.00 | 56.64 | 39.70 | 27.07 | +1.95 |
| Arizona | 1 | West | 99+ | 99.33 | 83.95 | 69.20 | 51.91 | 35.05 | 18.95 | +3.17 |
| Florida | 2 | South | 99+ | 98.45 | 81.44 | 69.03 | 48.57 | 27.09 | 12.83 | +2.53 |
| Michigan | 1 | Midwest | 99+ | 98.89 | 83.91 | 66.20 | 44.15 | 21.75 | 12.16 | -8.25 |
| Houston | 2 | Midwest | 99+ | 98.30 | 77.79 | 54.64 | 28.38 | 12.07 | 6.11 | +1.19 |
| Illinois | 2 | East | 99+ | 97.58 | 78.49 | 50.94 | 20.71 | 10.73 | 5.55 | +0.68 |
| Purdue | 3 | West | 99+ | 95.16 | 74.05 | 46.76 | 19.51 | 9.57 | 3.84 | +1.04 |
| Connecticut | 1 | South | 99+ | 98.61 | 72.58 | 43.78 | 20.36 | 8.39 | 2.87 | +0.47 |
| Iowa St. | 3 | East | 99+ | 93.90 | 65.50 | 31.31 | 10.08 | 4.43 | 1.87 | +0.28 |
| Michigan St. | 2 | West | 99+ | 96.10 | 66.16 | 33.48 | 11.59 | 4.92 | 1.67 | -0.95 |
| Nebraska | 3 | Midwest | 99+ | 89.78 | 67.64 | 29.15 | 11.19 | 3.44 | 1.19 | |
| Gonzaga | 4 | West | 99+ | 86.30 | 60.68 | 16.94 | 8.05 | 3.27 | 0.93 | -0.34 |
| Alabama | 4 | South | 99+ | 91.42 | 50.56 | 24.50 | 9.30 | 3.26 | 0.88 | |
| Virginia | 4 | Midwest | 99+ | 86.94 | 57.65 | 18.49 | 7.90 | 2.19 | 0.75 | +0.26 |
| Vanderbilt | 5 | South | 99+ | 77.38 | 41.75 | 19.91 | 7.88 | 2.57 | 0.69 | -0.12 |
| Kansas | 4 | East | 99+ | 85.87 | 50.81 | 11.13 | 4.74 | 1.82 | 0.58 | |
| St. John's | 5 | East | 99+ | 84.40 | 42.90 | 8.23 | 3.04 | 0.97 | <1 | |
| Texas Tech | 3 | South | 99+ | 86.86 | 54.13 | 13.18 | 5.13 | 1.33 | <1 | -1.14 |
| Saint Mary's | 8 | West | 99+ | 61.93 | 11.67 | 6.12 | 2.63 | 0.89 | <1 | |
| Louisville | 6 | East | 99+ | 62.23 | 23.16 | 7.76 | 1.65 | 0.53 | <1 | -0.14 |
| Utah St. | 7 | East | 99+ | 67.41 | 16.71 | 6.24 | 1.21 | <1 | <1 | |
| Arkansas | 5 | Midwest | 99+ | 66.57 | 29.31 | 7.00 | 2.48 | <1 | <1 | -0.22 |
| Saint Louis | 7 | South | 99+ | 57.53 | 11.56 | 6.64 | 2.59 | 0.66 | <1 | |
| Tennessee | 5 | West | 99+ | 71.37 | 28.48 | 5.16 | 1.65 | <1 | <1 | -0.47 |
| Santa Clara | 11 | West | 99+ | 57.25 | 15.53 | 5.76 | 1.27 | <1 | <1 | |
| Iowa | 8 | East | 99+ | 65.20 | 7.70 | 3.66 | 1.31 | <1 | <1 | |
| N.C. State | 8 | South | 99+ | 53.55 | 15.17 | 5.88 | 1.61 | <1 | <1 | |
| Texas | 10 | Midwest | 99+ | 57.00 | 13.84 | 6.13 | 1.64 | <1 | <1 | |
| UCLA | 10 | South | 99+ | 42.47 | 6.84 | 3.64 | 1.15 | <1 | <1 | |
| Ohio St. | 10 | West | 99+ | 50.30 | 16.84 | 5.56 | 1.23 | <1 | <1 | |
| Kentucky | 7 | West | 99+ | 49.70 | 16.55 | 5.26 | 0.92 | <1 | <1 | |
| Indiana | 11 | South | 99+ | 54.88 | 24.71 | 4.52 | 1.32 | <1 | <1 | |
| Miami FL | 8 | Midwest | 99+ | 48.61 | 7.42 | 3.08 | 0.90 | <1 | <1 | |
| Clemson | 9 | West | 99+ | 38.07 | 4.34 | 1.77 | 0.62 | <1 | <1 | |
| Georgia | 9 | Midwest | 99+ | 51.39 | 8.53 | 3.55 | 1.10 | <1 | <1 | |
| Auburn | 11 | Midwest | 99+ | 57.34 | 18.33 | 4.45 | 1.00 | <1 | <1 | |
| SMU | 9 | South | 99+ | 46.45 | 12.17 | 4.29 | 1.11 | <1 | <1 | |
| Villanova | 6 | South | 99+ | 45.12 | 18.21 | 2.84 | 0.70 | <1 | <1 | |
| BYU | 6 | West | 99+ | 42.75 | 9.31 | 3.01 | <1 | <1 | <1 | -0.15 |
| Texas A&M | 11 | East | 99+ | 37.77 | 10.26 | 2.63 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| TCU | 12 | Midwest | 99+ | 33.43 | 9.58 | 1.41 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| South Florida | 12 | South | 99+ | 22.63 | 6.58 | 1.52 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Wisconsin | 7 | Midwest | 99+ | 43.00 | 8.20 | 3.01 | 0.58 | <1 | <1 | |
| North Carolina | 6 | Midwest | 99+ | 42.66 | 11.06 | 2.31 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Belmont | 12 | West | 99+ | 28.63 | 6.69 | 0.53 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| UCF | 9 | East | 99+ | 34.80 | 2.17 | 0.72 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Merrimack | 16 | West | 99+ | 0.66 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| UC Irvine | 14 | West | 99+ | 4.84 | 1.10 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Portland St. | 16 | Midwest | 99+ | 1.10 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Howard | 16 | South | 99+ | 1.39 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Wright St. | 15 | Midwest | 99+ | 1.70 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| East Tennessee St. | 15 | South | 99+ | 1.55 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Navy | 15 | East | 99+ | 2.42 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Troy | 15 | West | 99+ | 3.90 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Liberty | 13 | South | 99+ | 8.58 | 1.11 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| North Dakota St. | 14 | South | 99+ | 13.14 | 2.94 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| High Point | 14 | Midwest | 99+ | 10.22 | 2.97 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| UNC Wilmington | 14 | East | 99+ | 6.10 | 1.08 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Stephen F. Austin | 13 | Midwest | 99+ | 13.06 | 3.46 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Utah Valley | 13 | West | 99+ | 13.70 | 4.16 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Yale | 13 | East | 99+ | 14.13 | 3.29 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Miami OH | 12 | East | 99+ | 15.60 | 3.00 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| Missouri | 10 | East | 99+ | 32.59 | 4.43 | 1.01 | <1 | <1 | <1 | |
| LIU | 16 | East | 99+ | 0.60 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 | <1 |