SBCB Elo

Silver Bulletin College Basketball Elo system — 200K+ games, 40 years of history

Elo Rankings — Tournament Field

#	Team	Seed	Region	Elo	Champ%
1	Arizona	1	West	2013	15.10%
2	Duke	1	East	1997	10.75%
3	Michigan	1	Midwest	1981	9.25%
4	Houston	2	Midwest	1979	8.00%
5	Connecticut	1	South	1978	8.43%
6	Florida	2	South	1962	6.59%
7	Iowa St	3	South	1951	5.32%
8	Purdue	3	Midwest	1949	5.29%
9	Illinois	2	East	1911	3.41%
10	St John's	4	East	1905	2.46%
11	Gonzaga	5	West	1902	3.21%
12	Nebraska	3	West	1876	2.19%
13	Vanderbilt	5	East	1875	1.36%
14	Texas Tech	4	South	1859	1.47%
15	Iowa	9	East	1852	0.97%
16	Texas A&M	11	South	1852	0.91%
17	Virginia	4	Midwest	1849	0.84%
18	Kansas	3	East	1845	1.03%
19	Clemson	8	South	1841	0.58%
20	Louisville	6	East	1840	0.92%
21	Alabama	4	West	1839	0.92%
22	Tennessee	5	Midwest	1838	0.58%
23	Villanova	6	Midwest	1835	0.55%
24	Georgia	9	South	1833	0.61%
25	Utah St	7	South	1832	0.44%
26	BYU	6	West	1831	0.95%
27	UCLA	10	South	1827	0.50%
28	Auburn	11	Midwest	1822	0.43%
29	Arkansas	5	South	1821	0.71%
30	Ohio St	10	East	1821	1.03%
31	Texas	10	Midwest	1816	0.38%
32	San Diego St	14	East	1804	0.47%
33	Kentucky	7	West	1801	0.66%
34	SMU	10	West	1801	0.69%
35	Santa Clara	12	East	1799	0.34%
36	Indiana	13	Midwest	1794	0.36%
37	UCF	9	Midwest	1792	0.47%
38	Wisconsin	7	Midwest	1789	0.21%
39	North Carolina	6	South	1783	0.22%
40	Missouri	9	West	1778	0.34%
41	VCU	11	West	1765	0.23%
42	New Mexico	12	Midwest	1763	0.16%
43	TCU	11	East	1754	0.12%
44	Belmont	14	West	1719	0.10%
45	Miami FL	8	East	1716	0.07%
46	Akron	13	West	1706	0.07%
47	Liberty	15	East	1698	0.07%
48	Yale	13	East	1694	0.05%
49	South Florida	13	South	1675	0.04%
50	California	12	South	1671	0.04%
51	Miami OH	12	West	1646	0.03%
52	Utah Valley	15	West	1642	0.04%
53	Illinois St	14	South	1641	0.01%
54	UC San Diego	16	West	1611	0.00%
55	Hofstra	16	Midwest	1545	0.00%
56	St Mary's	8	West	1500	0.01%
57	Saint Louis	7	East	1500	0.00%
58	N.C. State	8	Midwest	1500	0.00%
59	UNCW	15	South	1500	0.00%
60	Michigan St.	2	West	1500	0.00%
61	NC Wilmington	16	East	1500	0.00%
62	SFA	16	South	1500	0.00%
63	McNeese	14	Midwest	1500	0.00%
64	CA Baptist	15	Midwest	1500	0.00%

Elo Distribution

Championship Probabilities — Top 25

Survival Curves — Top 8

SBCB vs Market — Top 25

#	Team	Seed	SBCB	Kalshi	Poly	Sharp	Edge
1	Arizona	1	15.10%	14.00%	11.90%	14.88%	+0.22pp
2	Duke	1	10.75%	24.00%	21.00%	19.99%	-9.25pp
3	Michigan	1	9.25%	22.00%	18.00%	19.76%	-10.51pp
4	Connecticut	1	8.43%	7.00%	5.80%	4.79%	+3.64pp
5	Houston	2	8.00%	7.00%	8.00%	7.20%	+0.80pp
6	Florida	2	6.59%	13.00%	10.40%	9.55%	-2.96pp
7	Iowa St	3	5.32%	--	--	--	--
8	Purdue	3	5.29%	3.00%	3.70%	2.10%	+3.20pp
9	Illinois	2	3.41%	5.00%	4.40%	4.65%	-1.24pp
10	Gonzaga	5	3.21%	2.00%	1.80%	1.54%	+1.67pp
11	St John's	4	2.46%	--	--	--	--
12	Nebraska	3	2.19%	2.00%	0.60%	1.06%	+1.12pp
13	Texas Tech	4	1.47%	1.00%	2.20%	0.81%	+0.65pp
14	Vanderbilt	5	1.36%	2.00%	0.70%	0.90%	+0.47pp
15	Ohio St	10	1.03%	--	--	--	--
16	Kansas	3	1.03%	3.00%	2.30%	2.24%	-1.21pp
17	Iowa	9	0.97%	1.00%	--	0.50%	+0.48pp
18	BYU	6	0.95%	1.00%	0.30%	0.54%	+0.42pp
19	Alabama	4	0.92%	1.00%	1.30%	1.13%	-0.21pp
20	Louisville	6	0.92%	1.00%	0.60%	0.90%	+0.02pp
21	Texas A&M	11	0.91%	1.00%	--	0.43%	+0.48pp
22	Virginia	4	0.84%	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%	-0.16pp
23	Arkansas	5	0.71%	2.00%	0.70%	1.41%	-0.69pp
24	SMU	10	0.69%	1.00%	--	0.31%	+0.38pp
25	Kentucky	7	0.66%	1.00%	0.60%	0.96%	-0.29pp

Full Results — 64 Teams

Team	Seed	Region	Elo	R64	R32	S16	E8	F4	Final	Champ
Arizona	1	West	2013	99+	92.52	76.78	54.64	40.97	25.01	15.10
Duke	1	East	1997	99+	95.22	70.69	47.23	32.40	18.75	10.75
Michigan	1	Midwest	1981	99+	93.55	73.22	52.09	29.15	16.88	9.25
Connecticut	1	South	1978	99+	94.56	65.33	46.63	26.59	15.42	8.43
Houston	2	Midwest	1979	99+	94.91	69.47	41.74	24.88	14.66	8.00
Florida	2	South	1962	99+	94.72	64.27	37.27	21.55	12.23	6.59
Iowa St	3	South	1951	99+	87.43	58.95	32.35	18.48	10.13	5.32
Purdue	3	Midwest	1949	99+	94.41	62.36	32.46	18.25	10.15	5.29
Illinois	2	East	1911	99+	78.42	52.80	32.77	15.43	7.37	3.41
Gonzaga	5	West	1902	99+	82.80	53.11	22.66	14.07	6.61	3.21
St John's	4	East	1905	99+	78.09	45.38	20.16	11.61	5.29	2.46
Nebraska	3	West	1876	99+	72.58	43.57	28.21	11.45	5.06	2.19
Texas Tech	4	South	1859	99+	75.89	46.48	18.52	7.83	3.35	1.47
Vanderbilt	5	East	1875	99+	61.81	32.07	12.66	6.84	3.14	1.36
Ohio St	10	East	1821	99+	88.06	36.84	18.32	6.42	2.38	1.03
Kansas	3	East	1845	99+	55.90	30.38	14.73	5.71	2.33	1.03
Iowa	9	East	1852	99+	69.46	22.56	11.33	6.02	2.42	0.97
BYU	6	West	1831	99+	60.19	29.59	18.02	6.40	2.48	0.95
Alabama	4	West	1839	99+	68.74	32.01	11.07	6.11	2.43	0.92
Louisville	6	East	1840	99+	63.04	32.51	15.53	6.19	2.53	0.92
Texas A&M	11	South	1852	99+	60.87	24.86	10.47	4.68	2.19	0.91
Virginia	4	Midwest	1849	99+	57.91	32.09	13.05	5.32	2.22	0.84
Arkansas	5	South	1821	99+	71.44	35.78	12.40	4.65	1.80	0.71
SMU	10	West	1801	99+	50.48	38.80	17.88	5.51	1.92	0.69
Kentucky	7	West	1801	99+	49.53	37.59	17.07	5.47	1.85	0.66
Georgia	9	South	1833	99+	48.44	16.18	8.91	3.38	1.50	0.61
Clemson	8	South	1841	99+	51.56	17.77	9.59	3.85	1.65	0.58
Tennessee	5	Midwest	1838	99+	61.46	32.13	11.91	4.61	1.91	0.58
Villanova	6	Midwest	1835	99+	52.20	19.45	7.72	3.27	1.34	0.55
UCLA	10	South	1827	99+	49.76	17.20	7.26	3.02	1.35	0.50
San Diego St	14	East	1804	99+	44.10	22.18	9.72	3.26	1.30	<1
UCF	9	Midwest	1792	99+	85.44	23.86	11.19	3.56	1.26	<1
Utah St	7	South	1832	99+	50.24	17.66	7.42	3.08	1.24	<1
Auburn	11	Midwest	1822	99+	47.80	17.32	6.46	2.53	1.06	<1
Texas	10	Midwest	1816	99+	54.63	16.74	6.73	2.86	1.08	<1
Indiana	13	Midwest	1794	99+	42.09	19.68	6.51	2.15	0.86	<1
Santa Clara	12	East	1799	99+	38.19	15.83	5.04	2.40	0.87	<1
Missouri	9	West	1778	99+	84.23	19.27	7.82	3.75	1.19	<1
VCU	11	West	1765	99+	39.81	16.25	8.52	2.58	0.71	<1
North Carolina	6	South	1783	99+	39.13	12.57	4.37	1.75	0.61	<1
Wisconsin	7	Midwest	1789	99+	45.37	12.98	4.68	1.81	0.64	<1
New Mexico	12	Midwest	1763	99+	38.54	16.10	4.78	1.52	0.52	<1
TCU	11	East	1754	99+	36.96	14.94	5.54	1.58	<1	<1
Belmont	14	West	1719	99+	27.42	10.59	4.79	1.19	<1	<1
Akron	13	West	1706	99+	31.26	9.55	2.10	0.80	<1	<1
Liberty	15	East	1698	99+	21.58	8.81	3.11	0.74	<1	<1
Miami FL	8	East	1716	99+	30.54	5.96	1.99	0.83	<1	<1
Yale	13	East	1694	99+	21.91	6.71	1.52	0.50	<1	<1
California	12	South	1671	99+	28.56	8.65	1.81	<1	<1	<1
Utah Valley	15	West	1642	99+	70.93	19.17	4.88	1.01	<1	<1
South Florida	13	South	1675	99+	24.10	9.09	1.96	0.52	<1	<1
Miami OH	12	West	1646	99+	17.20	5.33	0.83	<1	<1	<1
St Mary's	8	West	1500	99+	15.77	1.07	<1	<1	<1	<1
Illinois St	14	South	1641	99+	12.57	3.62	0.76	<1	<1	<1
Saint Louis	7	East	1500	99+	11.94	1.55	<1	<1	<1	<1
N.C. State	8	Midwest	1500	99+	14.56	1.22	<1	<1	<1	<1
UC San Diego	16	West	1611	99+	7.48	2.88	0.74	<1	<1	<1
UNCW	15	South	1500	99+	5.29	0.87	<1	<1	<1	<1
Michigan St.	2	West	1500	99+	29.07	4.43	0.64	<1	<1	<1
NC Wilmington	16	East	1500	99+	4.78	0.79	<1	<1	<1	<1
SFA	16	South	1500	99+	5.44	0.71	<1	<1	<1	<1
McNeese	14	Midwest	1500	99+	5.59	0.86	<1	<1	<1	<1
CA Baptist	15	Midwest	1500	99+	5.10	0.81	<1	<1	<1	<1
Hofstra	16	Midwest	1545	99+	6.44	1.70	<1	<1	<1	<1