March Madness 2026 Dashboard
Two independent models forecasting the NCAA tournament
KenPom: 4 Mar, 12:28 Brackets: 4 Mar, 12:29 Odds: 4 Mar, 12:29 Injuries: 4 Mar, 12:29 SBCB: 4 Mar, 12:08
Championship Probabilities — Model Comparison
Top 25 — Models vs Markets
| # | Team | Seed | KenPom | Inj.Adj | SBCB | Kalshi | Poly | Sharp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 1 | 25.12% | 27.07% | 10.75% | 24.00% | 21.00% | 19.99% |
| 2 | Arizona | 1 | 15.78% | 18.95% | 15.10% | 14.00% | 11.90% | 14.88% |
| 3 | Michigan | 1 | 20.41% | 12.16% | 9.25% | 22.00% | 18.00% | 19.76% |
| 4 | Florida | 2 | 10.30% | 12.83% | 6.59% | 13.00% | 10.40% | 9.55% |
| 5 | Houston | 2 | 4.92% | 6.11% | 8.00% | 7.00% | 8.00% | 7.20% |
| 6 | Connecticut | 1 | 2.40% | 2.87% | 8.43% | 7.00% | 5.80% | 4.79% |
| 7 | Purdue | 3 | 2.79% | 3.84% | 5.29% | 3.00% | 3.70% | 2.10% |
| 8 | Illinois | 2 | 4.87% | 5.55% | 3.41% | 5.00% | 4.40% | 4.65% |
| 9 | Gonzaga | 4 | 1.27% | 0.93% | 3.21% | 2.00% | 1.80% | 1.54% |
| 10 | Nebraska | 3 | 1.13% | 1.19% | 2.19% | 2.00% | 0.60% | 1.06% |
| 11 | Vanderbilt | 5 | 0.81% | 0.69% | 1.36% | 2.00% | 0.70% | 0.90% |
| 12 | Iowa St. | 3 | 1.59% | 1.87% | 0.00% | 4.00% | 2.90% | 3.74% |
| 13 | Alabama | 4 | 0.97% | 0.88% | 0.92% | 1.00% | 1.30% | 1.13% |
| 14 | Texas Tech | 3 | 1.38% | 0.24% | 1.47% | 1.00% | 2.20% | 0.81% |
| 15 | Michigan St. | 2 | 2.63% | 1.67% | 0.00% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 1.89% |
| 16 | Kansas | 4 | 0.52% | 0.58% | 1.03% | 3.00% | 2.30% | 2.24% |
| 17 | Virginia | 4 | 0.49% | 0.75% | 0.84% | 2.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| 18 | Louisville | 6 | 0.27% | 0.14% | 0.92% | 1.00% | 0.60% | 0.90% |
| 19 | Iowa | 8 | 0.05% | 0.07% | 0.97% | 1.00% | -- | 0.50% |
| 20 | BYU | 6 | 0.17% | 0.01% | 0.95% | 1.00% | 0.30% | 0.54% |
| 21 | Texas A&M | 11 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.91% | 1.00% | -- | 0.43% |
| 22 | Arkansas | 5 | 0.33% | 0.11% | 0.71% | 2.00% | 0.70% | 1.41% |
| 23 | Kentucky | 7 | 0.11% | 0.06% | 0.66% | 1.00% | 0.60% | 0.96% |
| 24 | SMU | 9 | 0.01% | 0.02% | 0.69% | 1.00% | -- | 0.31% |
| 25 | Tennessee | 5 | 0.57% | 0.10% | 0.58% | 1.00% | 0.90% | 1.21% |
Forecast
KenPom probit simulator with bracket builder and market comparison
SBCB Elo
Nate Silver's Elo system with 40 years of historical data
Injuries
Injury tracker with impact analysis and team burden
KenPom
Rating evolution and volatility across snapshots
Schedule
Live scores, upcoming games, and upset tracker